Optimizing Models of the North Atlantic Spring Bloom Using Physical, Chemical and Bio-Optical Observations from a Lagrangian Float

The North Atlantic spring bloom is one of the main events that lead to carbon export to the deep ocean and drive oceanic uptake of CO(2) from the atmosphere. Here we use a suite of physical, bio-optical and chemical measurements made during the 2008 spring bloom to optimize and compare three different models of biological carbon export. The observations are from a Lagrangian float that operated south of Iceland from early April to late June, and were calibrated with ship-based measurements. The simplest model is representative of typical NPZD models used for the North Atlantic, while the most complex model explicitly includes diatoms and the formation of fast sinking diatom aggregates and cysts under silicate limitation. We carried out a variational optimization and error analysis for the biological parameters of all three models, and compared their ability to replicate the observations. The observations were sufficient to constrain most phytoplankton-related model parameters to accuracies of better than 15 %. However, the lack of zooplankton observations leads to large uncertainties in model parameters for grazing. The simulated vertical carbon flux at 100 m depth is similar between models and agrees well with available observations, but at 600 m the simulated flux is larger by a factor of 2.5 to 4.5 for the model with diatom aggregation. While none of the models can be formally rejected based on their misfit with the available observations, the model that includes export by diatom aggregation has a statistically significant better fit to the observations and more accurately represents the mechanisms and timing of carbon export based on observations not included in the optimization. Thus models that accurately simulate the upper 100 m do not necessarily accurately simulate export to deeper depths.

Interannual Variability in Timing of Bloom Initiation in the California Current System

In the California Current System the spring transition from poleward to equatorward alongshore wind stress heralds the beginning of upwelling-favorable conditions. The phytoplankton response to this transition is investigated using 8 years ( 1998-2005) of daily, 4-km resolution, Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor ( SeaWiFS) chlorophyll a concentration data. Cluster analysis of the chlorophyll a time series at each location is used to separate the inshore upwelling region from offshore and oligotrophic areas. An objective method for estimating the timing of bloom initiation is used to construct a map of the mean bloom start date. Interannual variability in bloom timing and magnitude is investigated in four regions: 45 degrees N - 50 degrees N, 40 degrees N - 45 degrees N, 35 degrees N - 40 degrees N and 20 degrees N - 35 degrees N. Daily satellite derived wind data ( QuikSCAT) allow the timing of the first episode of persistently upwelling favorable winds to be estimated. Bloom initiation generally coincides with the onset of upwelling winds ( +/- 15 days). South of similar to 35 degrees N, where winds are southward year-round, the timing of increased chlorophyll concentration corresponds closely to timing of the seasonal increase in upwelling intensity. A 1-D model and satellite derived photosynthetically available radiation data are used to estimate time series of depth- averaged irradiance. In the far north of the region (> 46 degrees N) light is shown to limit phytoplankton growth in early spring. In 2005 the spring bloom in the northern regions (> 35 degrees N) had a "false start''. A sharp increase in chl a in February quickly receded, and a sustained increase in biomass was delayed until July. We hypothesize that this resulted in a mismatch in timing of food availability to higher trophic levels.

Effects of Surface Forcing on Interannual Variability of the Fall Phytoplankton Bloom in the Gulf of Maine Revealed Using a Process-Oriented Model

SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) chlorophyll data revealed strong interannual variability in fall phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Maine, with 3 general features in any one year: (1) rapid chlorophyll increases in response to storm events in fall; (2) gradual chlorophyll increases in response to seasonal wind-and cooling-induced mixing that gradually deepens the mixed layer; and (3) the absence of any observable fall bloom. We applied a mixed-layer box model and a 1-dimensional physical-biological numerical model to examine the influence of physical forcing (surface wind, heat flux, and freshening) on the mixed-layer dynamics and its impact on the entrainment of deep-water nutrients and thus on the appearance of fall bloom. The model results suggest that during early fall, the surface mixed-layer depth is controlled by both wind-and cooling-induced mixing. Strong interannual variability in mixed-layer depth has a direct impact on short-and long-term vertical nutrient fluxes and thus the fall bloom. Phytoplankton concentrations over time are sensitive to initial pre-bloom profiles of nutrients. The strength of the initial stratification can affect the modeled phytoplankton concentration, while the timing of intermittent freshening events is related to the significant interannual variability of fall blooms.